Human rights groups, emergency relief organizations, governments, and multinational corporations all worry about political risk and their ability to undermine geopolitical stability, bend development trajectories, destabilize local peace and order, affect financial markets, and otherwise damage their organizations' ability to achieve their strategic objectives. Drawing on lessons from practitioners in the public and private sectors, as well as the academic field of risk analysis, this course proceeds in two roughly equal phases. In the first, students will evaluate the various sources of political risk and how they have evolved over time. The second section discusses models for analyzing political risk, and the promise and pitfalls of prediction. By the end of the course, students will be able to: -Discuss the sources of political risk, and their evolution over time; -Use multiple approaches to political risk, including bottom-up, mid-level, and cross-country comparative approaches; -Critically appraise models of political risk analysis, demonstrating awareness of the possible shortcomings of each model or mode of analysis; -Offer strategies for risk mitigation.
The course will be taught in English. Exceptionally, and in light of the recommendations of public health authorities seeking to contain the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the course will be offered remotely. Classes will be conducted by live web conferences using the Zoom software; lectures will be recorded for later access. Students will answer four quizzes over the course of the month. At the end of the course, students will submit a 2-3 page written essay. Quizzes will be offered in English. The essays may be written in English or Portuguese. The evaluation method may be reformulated depending on the number of registered students.
