The outbreak of the pandemic resulted in an economic and financial crisis not witnessed since the period of the Great Depression (1929-1929), which sparked diverse political discussions about the social usefulness of lockdown . The most recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that countries that adopted more flexible lockdown had more severe falls in GDP in 2020 - compared to countries that adopted Zero Covid . In this same context, emerging and low-income countries also had large drops in GDP compared to advanced economies. In this way, the data shows that the lockdown were efficient for a faster economic recovery and a better preservation of public health in a general context.

Health or the economy?

Philippe et. lockdown measures protect people and the economy more efficiently. According to the authors, countries that adopted stricter strategies to contain the virus experienced a less severe economic decline compared to countries that allowed the virus to spread to the point of collapse of their health systems during 2020. lockdown measures (Zero Covid) and countries that adopted more flexible strategies.

Figure 1. Variation in quarterly GDP in relation to the same period of the previous year (%)

In this context, the authors point out that countries that adopted the Zero Covid had positive economic effects. The GDP of Zero Covid had a slight drop of 1.2% compared to 2019, while in this same period, the drop in GDP among countries with flexible measures was greater at 3.3%. According to the authors, there was also a faster recovery in trade mobility between Zero Covid . Google 's mobility data shows that foot traffic in commercial areas fell less in countries that applied the Zero Covid . During Q2 2020, there was a 14% drop in Zero Covid compared to 36% in flexible countries. The data also shows that traffic in leisure, cultural and accommodation areas saw a 14% drop between January and February 2021 in Zero Covid countries, while countries with flexible strategies saw a 35% drop.

In this sense, studies by Philippe et. al (2021) point out that countries that prematurely eased lockdown measures penalized the course of their societies and economies throughout 2020. According to the authors, this is a problematic factor for conducting business for companies that depend on social interaction significant (restaurants, hotels and culture, leisure and recreation sectors), which have not operated normally for months. In this way, more severe social containment provides better health protection for the population and brings faster warming to the economy.

Hardest hit groups and advanced economies

Although thought-provoking, the analysis by Philippe et. al (2021) only captured the effects of health strategies made by advanced economies. In this way, the results presented by the IMF (2021) complete the authors' assumptions, demonstrating that emerging countries like Brazil had the biggest drop in GDP per capita in 2020. This effect can be seen in the graph below, in which the Economies Emerging countries (EE) such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, had the biggest drop among the groups of countries compiled by the IMF.

Figure 2. Hardest hit country groups

However, emerging countries were not the only ones that demonstrated sudden drops in GDP throughout 2020. The drop in GDP per capita also affected advanced economies such as member countries of the European Union (EU) and the Group of Seven (G7), which presented sudden drops during the 1st quarter of 2020. Despite the strong recovery during the 2nd quarter of 2020, the 3rd quarter showed little growth for the G7 and negative growth for the I. Data for the 4th quarter of 2020 has not yet been released by official sources such as the IMF and OECD. However, a greater increase in developed economies is expected during the 4th quarter of 2020 compared to the 3rd quarter. This factor is estimated due to the effective distribution of Covid-19 vaccines in advanced economies. 

Figure 3. Comparative GDP Per Capita growth (%) – EU and G7.  

Final Considerations

Data from the IMF and OECD, as well as studies by Philippe et. al (2021), state that lockdown measures were not harmful to the economy during 2020. Countries that adopted more restricted measures at the beginning of the health crisis (such as Australia, South Korea and New Zealand) showed drops in GDP less severe compared to countries that relaxed social containment measures. Zero Covid measures mainly benefited a faster rebound in the real economy, with increased social mobility in commercial and recreational activities. Therefore, we can state that lockdown result in a faster recovery in the level of economic activity. However, the results presented are only comparative and it is not possible to say whether there are statistical correlations between GDP growth and Zero Covid . Important factors are also ignored in this type of analysis, one of which is the different patterns of social-urban organization and population size between different countries. lockdown strategies in developed countries with a small population such as New Zealand; it does not work in the same way compared to countries with a large population density like Brazil or India. Also, levels of education and social inequality play an important role in social behavior in times of crisis. Therefore, we must emphasize that this article is just a brief investigation to stimulate public debate so that society and governments can seek more robust and accelerated solutions to contain the pandemic.