Do Brazilian mayors believe in science?

Responsible researcher: Angelo Cruz do Nascimento Varella

Article title: HOW RESEARCH AFFECTS POLICY: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM 2,150 BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES

Article authors: Jonas Hjort, Diana Moreira, Gautam Rao and Juan Francisco Santini

Location of intervention: Brazil

Sample size: 2,150 Brazilian municipalities

Major theme: Economic Policy and Governance

Type of Intervention: Experiment with mayors on academic research

Variable of Main Interest: Mayors’ decisions

Evaluation method: Experimental Evaluation (RCT)

Policy Problem

An explosion of new studies and research has occurred over the past few decades. According to the American Economic Association (AEA), between 2013 and 2019, there were more than 2,500 records of empirical studies using experiments. This vast application of scientific knowledge generated a growing and relevant validation of public policies, which defined positive and negative aspects in different sectors, such as education, income and health.

However, there is still little knowledge regarding the value given by political leaders and those responsible for drafting public policies to the discoveries of the scientific community. In other words, there are still necessary advances in the search for mapping and understanding the influence of studies and research on political agents.

Assessment Context

Municipalities are the lowest level of government in Brazil. At the time of the research, there were 5,570 municipalities, in 26 states, led by mayors elected directly by their respective populations. Each position of mayor has characteristics similar to other functions of the executive branch, such as a 4-year term with the possibility of re-election, appointments of secretaries to deal with municipal bureaucracies and the power to create public policies in areas such as health, education and transport. Each municipality has a legislative chamber that, together with the city hall, negotiates the budget, which comes mostly from federal transfers (around 60%) and tax collection (around 15%). Mayors have autonomy to execute the budget and normally face the electoral consequences of accountability to society.

To be able to carry out a large-scale experiment, the researchers entered into a partnership with the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM). The institution, which has a membership of 80% of Brazilian municipalities, is a non-partisan organization that acts as a body for coordinating and defending the interests of Brazilian mayors and municipalities at state and federal levels. The CNM is responsible for organizing meetings and conferences with various members and entities of public power, so its events are attended by thousands of political agents.

Policy Details

The researchers carried out two experiments with acting mayors, at major CNM events that took place between 2016 and 2018, with the intention of measuring their willingness to pay for scientific findings, as well as the effect that such discoveries have on the beliefs and decisions of these individuals.

The first experiment involved an analysis of the adoption of public policies after the dissemination of scientific findings and took place at a large CNM conference in 2016, with the participation of 881 mayors. During the event, participants were informed about a survey about a public policy that is easy to implement in Brazilian municipalities, about sending reminders to tax payers. The mayors were interviewed 15 to 24 months after participating in the event to investigate the implementation of the suggested action.

The second experiment took place throughout 2017 and 2018, in 14 CNM meetings, in which more than 900 municipal leaders from 657 Brazilian cities attended. On these occasions, participants were randomly informed of research results on interventions in Early Childhood Development (ECD), which have a broad scientific basis. After the information was released, the researchers carried out an evaluation in two stages, in which the mayors were invited to participate in a lottery betting system in which participants received 100 tickets to compete for a trip to the United States.

Assessment Method

In the first experiment, by informing mayors about the effectiveness of a reminder program for tax payers, the researchers enabled the implementation of a simple and low-cost public policy, mapping the agents who actually chose to adopt the proposed measures through the presentation of favorable scientific discoveries.

In the second experiment, four empirical studies on IPD were presented in the United States, Jamaica, Colombia and Michigan. The researchers questioned mayors about their beliefs about the effectiveness of public ECD policies in two of the locations presented and in their respective municipalities. Participants then received 100 tickets to compete for a trip to the United States.

At first, each individual received the option of using the tickets to, instead of competing in the travel draw, make an offer to buy information from scientific studies, as in an auction. The results were revealed to participants whose offer was greater than a minimum value, randomly established for each individual. In the second moment, the mayors won another 100 tickets and made a new proposal for the results of the three studies that had not been selected in the first round.

At the end of the experiment, mayors were asked again about their beliefs about implementing ECD programs. Thus, it is possible to compare mayors' willingness to pay for the results of scientific studies and the influence that new information has on their decision-making processes.

Results

In general, the results indicate that the political leaders approached by the research are interested in scientific discoveries, in addition to being willing to change their opinions and update their beliefs based on the display of concrete evidence and studies.

In the first experiment, more than 38% of the invited mayors chose to participate in the information sessions about the citizen reminder policy. In turn, participation in the event increased the probability of implementing public policy by 10 percentage points, an increase of 33% compared to the control group.

In the second experiment, with travel tickets, mayors and participants were willing to pay an average of 45 tickets (equivalent to 36 dollars) to receive the results of scientific studies, with around 98% of participants choosing to pay at least a ticket for the information. It was also possible to identify that individuals who paid more for tickets were also more likely to change their opinion based on the information contained in the studies acquired.

Public Policy Lessons

Overall, the results indicate that it is relevant to present scientific findings to political leaders. In general, when provided with clear information from research and empirical studies, mayors and other political agents at the municipal level shaped their beliefs and opinions to the point of implementing scientific solutions and knowledge. In other words, it is important to present scientific-based knowledge to political agents, with the aim of influencing the formulation of public policies and the decision-making process of those responsible for their implementation.

Reference

HJORT, Jonas et al. How research affects policy: Experimental evidence from 2,150 Brazilian municipalities. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.