Do disproportions between men and women have persistent effects?

Responsible researcher: Adriano Valladão Pires Ribeiro

Article title: It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-run consequences of male-biased sex ratios

Article authors: Pauline Grosjean and Rose Khattar

Location of intervention: Australia

Sample size : 42,866 observations

Big theme: Gender

Type of intervention: Effects of imbalances in the ratio between men and women

Variable of main interest: Attitude towards the role of women and their participation in the labor market

Evaluation method : Natural experiment

Policy Problem

The proportion between men and women in a society influences several social issues, such as marriage decisions, professional choices and the amount of work offered. In societies with more men, for example, families may be more conservative and women may end up being further away from the job market. The impacts of a greater proportion of men in a society and whether they are transitory or persistent form an interesting topic of investigation, especially when this disproportion is observed in several regions of the world today.

Assessment Context

A society with more men than women would have some immediate impacts, fewer women would give them a privileged position and more bargaining power, leading to higher marriage rates and lower participation in the job market. Over the years, the tendency for the share of each gender in a society to stabilize according to the proportion of births. However, the disproportion in favor of men can have lasting impacts through cultural norms, even when the imbalance is reversed. Thus, the effects can be divided into short-term and long-term.

To capture the impact of the proportion between men and women, an experiment would be necessary in which groups with varying proportions of men and women with the same cultural background and institutions lived in different places, to observe, after a certain period of time, the social structure of each place. That is, the only initial difference between these groups would be the proportion between men and women and, therefore, responsible for subsequent social dissimilarities.

This situation happened in Australia for many years, with the share of men being much higher than women. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the British Empire adopted a policy of sending convicts to Australia, resulting in more men being sent to the country. Furthermore, throughout the 20th century, more free men immigrated to Australia interested in opportunities in mining and agriculture. The disparity generated in the number of men can then be used to study the short- and long-term consequences regarding the labor market, occupational choices, leisure and the general attitude towards the role of women.

Intervention Details

The investigation of the effects of imbalances between men and women took place in the counties and states of Australia. For the most immediate purposes, data on the proportion of each gender and the structure of the economy come from the first colonial censuses of the 19th century for the six Australian states. There are, in total, 91 counties and the average was 3 men for every woman. The censuses also have information on the numbers of married men and women and occupation by gender. Furthermore, it was also considered to use available data from all 19th century censuses, covering the period from 1836 to 1881.

For long-term effects, focused on social norms and cultural aspects, data come from the 2011 Australian census and the Family, Income and Work Survey (HILDA) available from 2001. Information on cultural aspects and time allocation are obtained in HILDA by answering questions about who should take care of the house, the number of hours worked weekly, the time spent on domestic work and the perception of available time. The census contains data on women's participation in the labor market.

Methodology

With the above data, it is possible to capture the short and long-term effects of imbalances in gender ratio. First, short-term effects were measured, that is, we sought to capture the impact that more men than women have on the marriage rate for both genders, women's participation in the labor market and female employment. This measurement was made for two sets of data, one for the counties between 1836 and 1881, the other just for the first sense of each state.

The second exercise sought to measure the long-term consequences of the disparity in the number of men relative to women, that is, society's attitude towards the work environment and cultural issues related to gender. To this end, the link between the gender proportion given by the first census of each state and the measure of society's behavior towards women, the allocation of time and their participation in the job market in the present was measured.

The necessary hypothesis to obtain the above links is that the proportion between men and women in each state did not depend on the opportunities in the economy. However, individuals' decisions to migrate to a certain region were influenced by both economic and personal factors, which, if transmitted through generations, would generate a bias between current variables and the gender imbalance of the colonial era. This fact, if not corrected, may not reflect the long-term effect of the male to female ratio, as this ratio would incorporate more importance than it should. The solution is to use the sex ratio of the convict population, since they did not choose the region they went to, could not move and represented a considerable part of the total population.

Results

The short-term results for the two data sets were similar. A higher proportion of men is associated with a higher marriage rate and a reduction in women's labor supply, less marriage for men, and a lower proportion of women employed in senior occupations. There is, however, no way of verifying the mechanisms that lead to these results, for example, whether women's lower participation in the labor market is the result of greater bargaining power for them or whether this means a replacement of outside work by domestic.

For the long term, the results indicate that, nowadays, more people have the view that women should stay at home in regions where the proportion of men was higher. This perspective is specific to work, as no relationship was found between the past gender ratio and the opinion of female political leaders when compared to men. Regarding female participation in the labor market, the relationship is negative, although insignificant. However, considering the intensive margin of the number of hours worked, the relationship is negative and strong for women and positive for men. In other words, in areas where there were more men, women currently work fewer hours and the opposite is true for men.

A possible consequence of working fewer hours would be an increase in the propensity for part-time employment and less employment in senior positions. In fact, the relationship between the ratio between men and women in the past is negative and the share of women occupying senior positions in the present. For time allocation, the results suggest that women living in areas with a higher proportion of men previously have more leisure time when compared to women in more balanced areas. The explanation is due to the fact that they work fewer hours in the job market, as reported above, and this difference in time is not compensated with domestic work. Finally, the possible corrections in the relationships obtained using the sex ratio of convicts result in values ​​similar in direction and magnitude to the results already presented.

Public Policy Lessons

The main takeaway from the study is that imbalances in male to female ratios can have lasting effects, even after the imbalance is reversed. The persistent effect of a period in which there were many more men than women in the past translates, in the present, into a lower labor supply for women and more conservative views about the role of each gender in society.

Reference

Grosjean, Pauline; Khattar, Rose. “It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-run consequences of male-biased sex ratios.” The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 86, no. 2, p. 723-754, 2019.

Policy Problem

The proportion between men and women in a society influences several social issues, such as marriage decisions, professional choices and the amount of work offered. In societies with more men, for example, families may be more conservative and women may end up being further away from the job market. The impacts of a greater proportion of men in a society and whether they are transitory or persistent form an interesting topic of investigation, especially when this disproportion is observed in several regions of the world today.

Assessment Context

A society with more men than women would have some immediate impacts, fewer women would give them a privileged position and more bargaining power, leading to higher marriage rates and lower participation in the job market. Over the years, the tendency for the share of each gender in a society to stabilize according to the proportion of births. However, the disproportion in favor of men can have lasting impacts through cultural norms, even when the imbalance is reversed. Thus, the effects can be divided into short-term and long-term.

To capture the impact of the proportion between men and women, an experiment would be necessary in which groups with varying proportions of men and women with the same cultural background and institutions lived in different places, to observe, after a certain period of time, the social structure of each place. That is, the only initial difference between these groups would be the proportion between men and women and, therefore, responsible for subsequent social dissimilarities.

This situation happened in Australia for many years, with the share of men being much higher than women. In the 18th and 19th centuries, the British Empire adopted a policy of sending convicts to Australia, resulting in more men being sent to the country. Furthermore, throughout the 20th century, more free men immigrated to Australia interested in opportunities in mining and agriculture. The disparity generated in the number of men can then be used to study the short- and long-term consequences regarding the labor market, occupational choices, leisure and the general attitude towards the role of women.

Intervention Details

The investigation of the effects of imbalances between men and women took place in the counties and states of Australia. For the most immediate purposes, data on the proportion of each gender and the structure of the economy come from the first colonial censuses of the 19th century for the six Australian states. There are, in total, 91 counties and the average was 3 men for every woman. The censuses also have information on the numbers of married men and women and occupation by gender. Furthermore, it was also considered to use available data from all 19th century censuses, covering the period from 1836 to 1881.

For long-term effects, focused on social norms and cultural aspects, data come from the 2011 Australian census and the Family, Income and Work Survey (HILDA) available from 2001. Information on cultural aspects and time allocation are obtained in HILDA by answering questions about who should take care of the house, the number of hours worked weekly, the time spent on domestic work and the perception of available time. The census contains data on women's participation in the labor market.

Methodology

With the above data, it is possible to capture the short and long-term effects of imbalances in gender ratio. First, short-term effects were measured, that is, we sought to capture the impact that more men than women have on the marriage rate for both genders, women's participation in the labor market and female employment. This measurement was made for two sets of data, one for the counties between 1836 and 1881, the other just for the first sense of each state.

The second exercise sought to measure the long-term consequences of the disparity in the number of men relative to women, that is, society's attitude towards the work environment and cultural issues related to gender. To this end, the link between the gender proportion given by the first census of each state and the measure of society's behavior towards women, the allocation of time and their participation in the job market in the present was measured.

The necessary hypothesis to obtain the above links is that the proportion between men and women in each state did not depend on the opportunities in the economy. However, individuals' decisions to migrate to a certain region were influenced by both economic and personal factors, which, if transmitted through generations, would generate a bias between current variables and the gender imbalance of the colonial era. This fact, if not corrected, may not reflect the long-term effect of the male to female ratio, as this ratio would incorporate more importance than it should. The solution is to use the sex ratio of the convict population, since they did not choose the region they went to, could not move and represented a considerable part of the total population.

Results

The short-term results for the two data sets were similar. A higher proportion of men is associated with a higher marriage rate and a reduction in women's labor supply, less marriage for men, and a lower proportion of women employed in senior occupations. There is, however, no way of verifying the mechanisms that lead to these results, for example, whether women's lower participation in the labor market is the result of greater bargaining power for them or whether this means a replacement of outside work by domestic.

For the long term, the results indicate that, nowadays, more people have the view that women should stay at home in regions where the proportion of men was higher. This perspective is specific to work, as no relationship was found between the past gender ratio and the opinion of female political leaders when compared to men. Regarding female participation in the labor market, the relationship is negative, although insignificant. However, considering the intensive margin of the number of hours worked, the relationship is negative and strong for women and positive for men. In other words, in areas where there were more men, women currently work fewer hours and the opposite is true for men.

A possible consequence of working fewer hours would be an increase in the propensity for part-time employment and less employment in senior positions. In fact, the relationship between the ratio between men and women in the past is negative and the share of women occupying senior positions in the present. For time allocation, the results suggest that women living in areas with a higher proportion of men previously have more leisure time when compared to women in more balanced areas. The explanation is due to the fact that they work fewer hours in the job market, as reported above, and this difference in time is not compensated with domestic work. Finally, the possible corrections in the relationships obtained using the sex ratio of convicts result in values ​​similar in direction and magnitude to the results already presented.

Public Policy Lessons

The main takeaway from the study is that imbalances in male to female ratios can have lasting effects, even after the imbalance is reversed. The persistent effect of a period in which there were many more men than women in the past translates, in the present, into a lower labor supply for women and more conservative views about the role of each gender in society.

Reference

Grosjean, Pauline; Khattar, Rose. “It's raining men! Hallelujah? The long-run consequences of male-biased sex ratios.” The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 86, no. 2, p. 723-754, 2019.