Who drives climate policies in emerging economic powers?

Responsible researcher: Viviane Pires Ribeiro

Paper Title: Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?

Authors: Hubert Schmitz

Location of Intervention: Emerging Powers

Sample Size: 4 countries

Big theme: Environment, Energy & Climate Change

Variable of Main Interest: Climate Policies

Type of Intervention : Economic analysis of relevant climate policies

Methodology: Political economy analysis

Emerging economic powers have a significant impact on the future of planet Earth and the human species. The study by Schmitz (2017) provides an economic analysis of climate-relevant policies in China, India, Brazil and South Africa. The main conclusion is that most actors supporting these policies have priorities other than mitigating climate change. climate. Its main concerns are to guarantee energy for the country or specific regions, to promote new green industries and make them competitive, to create jobs and income in these industries or to lay the foundations for increasing public revenue. Mitigating climate change is not irrelevant, but it tends to be a co-benefit rather than a driver.

Assessment Context

In recent years, extreme weather events have become more common in many parts of the world. There is strong evidence for this growing climate chaos, just as there is evidence that carbon emissions, resulting from human activity, are the main causes. Reducing these emissions is one of today's challenges. It requires structural changes for the global economy to operate within environmental limits. While controversies remain over how quickly emissions should be reduced, it is increasingly accepted that delays are likely to increase the costs of dealing with this climate chaos in the future.

Recognition of the need for urgent action has led to major efforts to find global solutions. However, little progress was made in international negotiations until the breakthrough in Paris, where a global agreement was reached in December 2015.

Intervention Details

Given that a global agreement was signed in 2015 (Paris Agreement) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the average increase in global temperatures, Schmitz (2017) comments that the main question is how credible these commitments are. Will they take action? The author then highlights that this issue is relevant to all countries, but that greater attention will be given to countries responsible for the stock of carbon emissions and those responsible for increases in carbon emissions – notably the emerging powers that are the focus of the study carried out by the author.

The article looks behind the scenes, questioning who drives climate-relevant policies in emerging economic powers and who impedes them. These questions were analyzed in four countries: India, China, Brazil, and South Africa. In other studies, researchers analyzing these countries sought answers by examining the available literature and then conducting interviews with key stakeholders. The work carried out by Schmitz (2017) brings together the main findings.

Methodology Details

Schmitz (2017) analyzes each of the four countries (China, India, Brazil and South Africa) and sets the conclusions in context. Although necessarily brief, it shows who the main actors are, what their priorities are, in which arena they operate, and how opportunities and crises influence policy. The study, therefore, contributes to the understanding of the domestic politics of global policymaking. The author's main concern, however, is not to track the moment-to-moment national-global policy connections, but rather to gain an analytical grip on the forces driving climate-relevant policies.

Given that many policies and sectors have climate repercussions, the study was selective. The author paid special attention to the transformation of fossil fuels into renewable energy, as it is a central component of decarbonization and increasingly viable from a technological and economic point of view. This puts political viability center stage and highlights the need to adopt a political economy approach.

Results

Analysis of the four countries (China, India, Brazil and South Africa) shows structural factors that inhibit or facilitate transformations. Some inhibiting factors are inherited from millions of years of evolution, namely fossil fuel endowments; others are of recent origin and man-made, notably investments in fossil fuel infrastructure. Enabling factors can also be subdivided into those that are "given by nature", i.e. wind and solar endowments, and those that are man-made, namely the national capacity to produce new renewable energy technologies. Where such capacity exists, the lobby for renewables is likely to be stronger. Schmitz (2017) highlights that one must also consider an involuntary facilitating factor, which is energy scarcity, which will likely reduce resistance to the introduction of renewable energy.

These are not the only factors. Institutional systems play an important role. The distinction between coordinated and liberal institutional systems seems relevant. Given the high interdependence of public and private investments in the energy sector, according to the author, it can be hypothesized that coordinated institutional systems are more conducive to energy transitions. And given the enormous uncertainties and the need for experiments, it can be hypothesized that decentralized systems are more conducive to rapid learning.

Taken together, the insights identified in the study lead to three general conclusions. First, the reasons for supporting climate-relevant policies vary greatly. These reasons can be classified into two groups: material and moral. Most importantly, they are not mutually exclusive, but – in some cases – complementary. Opportunities to understand and promote change arise as alignment between the two is allowed.

Secondly, there are different types of alliances. On the one hand, there is the strategic alliance based on joint action; on the other, the mere alignment of interests without coordination between the parties. Closely related and also very useful is the distinction between consciously sought alliance and incidental alliance. Both can be transitory (short term) or lasting (long term), but the incidental alliance is more likely to be short term. Information on the longevity of alliances is rare, but it is observed that short-term alliances, triggered by particular events or focused on specific initiatives, are more common.

Third, alliances make a difference. They are fundamental to accelerating change or blocking it. Although the literature on how alliances organize and operate is patchy, Schmitz (2017) argues that they are important. The author emphasizes that we need to unpack the policy process and pay special attention to bottlenecks. Without subscribing to a linear policy process, we can usefully distinguish between policy formulation and policy implementation.

This is highlighted by the case of China, where policy formulation occurs mainly at the central level in negotiations between various actors. Policy implementation requires other or additional actors, typically at the subnational level, and requires cooperation between local government and businesses.

Public Policy Lessons

The study carried out by Schmitz (2017) shows that alliances play a fundamental role in driving climate-relevant policies. However, most actors supporting these policies have other priorities than mitigating climate change. Support for such policies comes from concerns about energy security, building competitive green industries, creating jobs, or providing a basis for future public revenues. This perception is not only analytical, but also political. This means that climate-relevant policies can count on the support of a broad electorate – not just those with green convictions. This analysis provides the starting point for understanding the political feasibility of low-carbon transformations.

The political viability of low-carbon transformations can be influenced by a range of structural factors, such as the extent of energy shortages, natural endowments (fossil fuel reserves, solar and wind resources), capacity to produce and adopt new technologies, and infrastructure energy. It is plausible that such structural differences between countries play an important role in the policy process, but little or no comparative research appears to have been conducted on whether, how and why they are important for low-carbon transformation.

References

Schmitz, H. (2017). Who drives climate-relevant policies in the rising powers?. New Political Economy , 22 (5), 521-540.